In the face of harsh anti-immigrant and anti-Latino rhetoric during the 2010 midterm elections, Latinos emerged as important political players, with Hispanic candidates proving competitive in statewide races and Latino voters affecting the balance of power in Congress. Yet with such little progress on the issues that matter to Latinos and so many candidates demonizing or neglecting the community, why did Latino voters go to the polls?
“Latinos were telling us that they came out to support their community,” said Dr. Matt Barreto, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, a public opinion research firm that has been conducting tracking polls of Hispanic voters, including an election-eve poll of Latino voters in 2010. According to their numbers, more Latinos went to the polls to support their fellow Latinos (47%) than to support the Democratic (31%) or Republican (12%) candidates.
“They came out to vote for respect,” explained Clarissa Martínez-De-Castro, Director of Immigration and National Campaigns at the National Council of La Raza (NCLR).
Barreto and Martínez-De-Castro participated in a panel discussion last week sponsored by NCLR at its headquarters in Washington, D.C. titled “Census, Redistricting, Elections: The Latino Vote in the Next Decade.” The panel focused on understanding the role that Latinos have played in recent elections and the effects that the growth and mobilization of the Latino community will have on the future of American politics. Moderated by Politico’s Carrie Budoff Brown, the discussion also included Dr. Gary Segura, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, Rafael Collazo, National Deputy Director of Democracia U.S.A., and Gloria Montaño-Greene, the Washington, D.C. Director for the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund.
Panelists agreed that although the Latino voting bloc is growing faster than any other electoral segment and drawing increased attention, there are still many misconceptions and missteps in engaging it. Some political players see all Latinos as immigrants and all immigrants as undocumented—and, therefore, ineligible to vote. But seven out of 10 Latinos are U.S. citizens, and of those under 18, the number is nine in 10. Similarly, much of the polling methodology used by campaigns and the media misses important segments of this electorate, consequently providing an inaccurate view of the issues and perspectives driving it.
“These narratives are the stories that elected officials use to create public policies,” Segura said.
“We have a responsibility to make sure that the story being told about the Latino community is accurate.”
Gloria Montaño-Greene also pointed out that polling results influence political campaign investments and strategy.
But ignoring Latinos is one option that politicians choose at their own peril.
“2010 showed that among the Latino electorate, candidates matter, positions matter, and meaningful outreach and investment pays off,” said Martínez-De Castro, pointing to Senator Harry Reid’s race in Nevada as the playbook page that candidates of any party seeking to attract Latinos should follow.
At the panel, NCLR released a report called Engaging the Latino Electorate, which looks at communication expenditures aimed at Latinos, examines layered campaign strategies that generated Hispanic engagement in the last election cycle, and provides examples of promising nonpartisan efforts.
Both Barreto and Segura warn that the influence of Latinos in these elections is being diminished by inaccurate polling. For example, in the Nevada senatorial race, exit polling reported that Sharron Angle received 30% of the Latino vote—a highly implausible number, according to Segura, in light of the widely criticized ads that Angle ran painting Latinos in menacing ways—while 2008 presidential candidate John McCain, who was more popular among Latinos, garnered just 22% of their vote. In fact, Latino Decisions’ election-eve polling of Latino voters showed support for Angle at 8%. Segura worries that these types of incorrect figures misinform politicians about what motivates Latinos and how they feel about important issues, holding great consequences for policy-making.
The next big debate looming in the future is undoubtedly the redistricting process. States throughout the country will redraw district lines in order to reflect their changing populations. Results from the 2010 Census released by nearly half of the states show sizable growth of the Hispanic population in every state. This is an opportunity for Latinos to capitalize on the redistricting process as a means of demanding a voice in government.
“When you make this map, you can either unite communities or divide them,” said Montaño-Greene. “The map ensures that they either have a voice or they don’t have a voice.”
Not only has the Latino population grown, Latinos also show the fastest rate of growth of voter turnout and registration. Moreover, the explosion of Latinos under 18 means that there is a humungous pool of potential voters waiting in the wings with the power to shape American politics.
“The Latino youth vote is the Latino vote,” said Collazo, whose organization, Democracia U.S.A., works to increase political participation among Hispanics.
He admits that Latinos must find a way to engage younger generations and provide them with leadership opportunities.
“This group feels part of the future of this country,” he said.
This news should be a wake-up call to both political parties. Republicans, who capitalized on anti-immigration attitudes during the midterm elections, will have to revise their strategy if the party wants to attract Latino voters in the future. But their game plan will depend on whether Democrats and the Obama administration take firmer stances on Latino priorities such as immigration. The panelists agreed that even if Democrats are unable to pass immigration reform, they need to make an effort to show Latinos that the party is in their corner.
Could inaction from the president and the Democrats as a whole keep Latino voters away from the polls? Democrats have to wonder whether the Latinos who voted in 2010 came to support their candidates or whether they came to defend their community and show their political power as a growing electorate in America. The questions stands: How might sustained inaction affect the Latino electorate in 2012?
